Monday, January 25, 2010

Cliff Jumping

Sigh. For the 2nd time this challenge, the soul crushing downswing has reared it's ugly head.

Last night I hopped on to run a few tables after the football poker day at Adam's. I felt sorta tired so I didn't want to put up too many tables, I limited it to 3 or 4. I ran really good at one table for a minute, busted 2 guys, and the table broke. This was a nice start to the night.

I went on a couple of other tables, and things went awry quickly. Typical of downswings for me, I took a series of bad beats, followed shortly by mixing in bad play with the bad beats. This is bad.

These days I tend to avoid FBMT, but I can still slip firmly into C game play and just stay too long playing like that. If I run well, I dig myself out as at least I am giving myself a shot. But if I don't, it just makes the situation that much worse.

I ran -19.00 on the EV graph on HEM, but punted off 3-4 buy-ins myself with no excuse. If I had played really well but just had a sick downswing, I would be ok with that. This isn't what happened here however.

Here are some hands:

On this first one, it's limped to me on the BB, and I raise it up with ATo. This is close, but for me it's good enough to raise as these players limp/fold constantly and it's easy money. Also, AT is fine vs. most limper's ranges. I get a good flop, and not fooling around, lead out for full pot. I think I can get called by any flush draw and all aces call me as well (most of which are behind me). The turn is fairly benign. I decide to just shove here because I need to get the money in now vs. a flush draw (he won't pay any more on the river if he misses) and I figure that any Ace will call as well. Again, I don't have him on a stronger Ace as I figure he would be raising AJ+ from the button. False.

Nextly, we have this little gem. I am really not sure about this at all. I guess I can try to control the pot on the river, but I didn't really think it was warranted against this player as he was calling me fairly light anyway (my image was... suspect at the time shall we say). So I raise KJo up after someone has posted their blinds. I get one caller, and bet the flop when I hit top pair. I bet big, full pot, and he calls. Turn pairs the 2nd pair, and to me, this is a likely holding for him. I check, and he checks behind. I hit a J on the river, although it's not meaningful. I bet out, figuring I have the best hand after my opponent checked back the turn. He shoves, and I am committed. I am not sure I need to make this pot this big, but I don't think it's terrible either.

I found this next hand quite puzzling. Just nothing really made sense about it. I called a raise out of the SB with QJo. Not great. Completely whiff the flop, it checks around. Turn is a blank, I check, villain bets the patented $.04, get's one fold, but I am not folding for that. I pair the river. My hand feels pretty darn strong here. I bet out for value and get shoved on. WTH does this guy have? A ten is a distinct possibility, but there is really no hand except maybe flopped quads that tells any kind of story here. I decide to go with it...

I decide to shove the turn here as I am thinking that quite a few draws are in this guys range and I don't want him to wiggle free if he misses. Apparently bottom pair no kicker was also in his range. I am ok with my play, but these are the type of hands that can add up pretty fast when you are on a downswing.

I certainly wasn't short on action for the night, at least I had that going for me. Again though, these are the types of hands that can add up and be really annoying. Interestingly, villain is 36% on the flop here, so he is far from drawing dead.

Sigh. I guess it's just a product of how I play that these downswings will happen. I'm not really worried about it, it's just lame to look at the graph and see a couple weeks worth of efforts erased.

5 comments:

royalbacon said...

Glad to see I'm not the only one!

What's your bankroll at now? You should state it in your blog posts so we're not left wondering…

Marshall said...

Sorry I keep thinking that I will just get that damn graph fixed, but you are right.

Roll total as of writing was ~87.00

jason said...

Marsh:

I have to be honest but I don't like your river play on this little gem and the next hand is puzzling.

We are not playing wannabe durr types at these levels. With your K on a KQQJ8 board you are essentially making a hero call to a shove, especially a shove after you bet pot into the guy. This in my mind is a clear fold. You are beating absolutely nothing except air or a made hand like bottom pair that the player wants to turn into a bluff. I can't think of any players from a hand that anyone has shown (excepting maybe someone on massive tilt after losing a couple big pots) that bluff raises with air at these stakes. Show me any hands like this and I will retract my statement.

I had a guy last night at PL08 $2/$4 check raise pot on a board of 8889 with 2 clubs with air. He was a very good player who was aggressive and had shown a couple cool bluffs. I folded my AKxx with a club draw knowing I was drawing dead to any pair. This happens at the mid to higher stakes but I don't see it is happening at .02/.04 NLHE.

Same story on the river J, you bet out for value, fine, but when shoved on this is a clear fold. I will change my tune if anyone shows me a bluff raise for a meaningful stack at these levels but I still can't remember one.

Definitely a bummer that you are running badly but I think you should have about $2-$3 more dollars in your account from these 2 hands.

royalbacon said...

I have to agree with Jason on the KJ hand. I’ve made that bet on the river before, like you did, but regretted it every time. Who’s calling you there that you’re beating? MAYBE someone with AJ who missed his flush or straight draw. But that’s it, I think. Everyone else calling you there is beating you, and a half-pot bet or less is going to get a completely missed draw on the river there. By betting the pot, you over-committed yourself. Once villain went all-in for another ~$2, you shoulda just folded, imho.

chuck m said...

Damn Marsh, you butchered those hands. Seriously, you lost like a buy-in more than you should have that session.

Play better, dude.