I am kinda stuck at around 1600, but that's just fine with me. After all, with the rakeback we get at Cake, staying even (especially in a bigger game like I am buying in for) means making money. I am trying to play less overall poker but make more money doing it. This has been somewhat successful, but the swings and big buy ins make it hard for me to play very much. I have been playing mostly 1-2 PLO8 or NLO8, and if the pot sizes and donks are just right, I will spring for the 2-4 tables, hopefully NL, as there is TONS of action. I buy in for the minimum at both almost every time, (120.00 at the 1-2). This is above my 5%, but not by a ridiculous amount. It is enough that I have to nut peddle for the most part though, which sucks, because I am making sub-optimal plays sometimes in order to protect my stack. I am however willing to gamble with the true donks at the upper levels, and the variance that goes along with that can be kinda sick. I am hoping not to run into some super sick downswing though during this stretch. It is entirely possible, even though I have tuned my game to take on less risk at the expense of less reward (long term).
If I did have a brutal downswing, I would simply have to pack it up at the bigger limits and hit up the lower levels again. The old grind. One thing that is pretty annoying in that the bigger the limits on O8 on cake, the crazier the players. You just rarely see the type of crazy action you see at the big tables down at the .25-.50 tables.
Anyhow, I soldier on, hoping to break hard into the bigger numbers, but wary that it can all go awry in one crap session.. Wish me luck.
Up over $80
13 years ago
5 comments:
Thanks for the update. I agree with your strategy. In the last update you indicated that the cake challenge was headed in a new direction for you.
I agree with the direction you are headed. Bankroll management is only part of the equation in successful on line play. More important is finding a game where your EV is the greatest.
To put this in perspective, let's say you started with $100 and had 2 coin flip games to participate in. In one game you won 50.1% of the time, maximum wager was 50 cents. In another game you won 56% of the time but your minimum wager was $7.00. Which game would you rather play, knowing that if you lost your bankroll you had no option to reload?
Hands down I am wagering $7 each time.
The only thing I did not like in your post was that the higher stakes had forced you into more nittiness and more nut peddling. This is not your game and not how you have been successful in poker.
I was playing last night with a master nit and it was very easy to adjust to him. I knew he would lose his stack (he was at a very tough table with myself and at least 3 other good players 6 handed). All I did was fold when he was betting and I put maximum pressure on him when he was in position with good to mediocre hands. He would not call unless he had either the nut high or low on the river. Eventually, he chipped away to zero.
I am not saying it is easy at these stakes. One of the toughest players out there is ran 2106. He basically plays good hands preflop and then if he likes the flop he will typically 3barrell whether the turn or river cooperate. Calling down $150 to $250 bets with mediocre holdings is not easy and quite frankly I am not quite yet good at it. Still learning but there are still enough donks out there that I am confident the O8 games will be EV positive over time. Newkum who changed his name is not easy either.
If you want to know what kind of variance to expect, my worst streak ever was over one long session period where I dropped $1200 from high point to low point. Buyins were between $200 and $240.
Buying in for $120 if you duplicate my worst streak ever, your stack will be at about $1,000, not great but still big enough to recover.
I encourage you to play your game!
Yo Marsh, I support your O/8 nut peddling. Buy in for an amount that can't hurt you, throw away anything but premium hands, and aggressively play and flop where you are favored to scoop. With PLO/8 you are playing for stacks so get it in there when you have a solid edge to take down both halves of the pot. If you want to do this with more than 5% of your roll then that's your decision but the hand strategy is as sound as sound can be.
Thanks for the good advice Jase. I guess I should qualify what I mean by nut peddling. I play aggressive. And if I flop the nut low you are getting hammered every street pretty much unless I have a strong feeling that I am not the only one with the nut low. If I flop a draw to the nut or 2nd nut low AND nut or 2nd nut high, I am coming after you. So nut peddling isn't entirely accurate. But for example, I am willing to let go of a bare A2 pretty regularly even if I do have the nut low draw, but nothing else. I just don't need to get involved with that much money on the line at this point. Where normally I might peel one off in position with the nut low draw, hit it and then try to take the pot away from someone. Another good example is when I have a strong hand, but not the nuts, and I get a maniac hammering me, I will just let it go usually. Even though my poker sense is screaming that I am probably good and need to call this crazy guy down, I really feel an overriding sense that I need to actually have showdownable hands to be in there for my stack. Basically this makes me feel like I am leaving a little bit of money on the table, but at the same time, it reduces my variance a bit and keeps things a bit more even keel.
But ya, once I sit down with my stack, I am willing to get it in when I think it's right. I don't have any qualms at all about gambling it up in the right spots as described above, and I will hammer the pot trying to win it right there as well even if I only have one half of the pot locked up.
Marsh:
Thanks for the clarification. One recommendation I will make to take your game to the next level is to mix in some bluffs. Not big bluffs but bluffs where you can take down $10 to $30 pots.
In hold'em, you mix these in well. In hold'em I don't believe that most bluffs are in and of themselves EV positive but it does help you with image so you can take down pots when you have the goods. I won't speak for others but I am much more willing to call you down than other players when I have a tweener hand in hold'em because of your ability to bluff well.
In O8 though I think bluffs are EV positive. I am not talking about semi bluffs, I am talking about air bluffs on the flop and river usually. Suppose the flop comes QQ7, you are in the small blind limped pot 3 way. I will typically bet here. In hold'em no one believes you and people will call you light. In O8, most weak players will just fold.
Chasing a nut low draw and you brick the river, almost every card is a scare card in Omaha 8 so I will typically bet here or raise a small bet into me.
If I count all my bluffs and all the times I am called in Omaha 8, I would bet I am net ahead.
You may want to try this, if you are not already, to take your game to the next level. I know you are more than capable and the increased variance is not nearly as much as you might think.
I plan to post on bluffs on my next cake update but it will be this weekend at the earliest.
Sounds good Jase. I will occasionally bluff at your typical pot bet, call call call preflop action pot. Usually they are from 15-45 bucks or so. And when it checks around to me, I am SO SO SO tempted to just stab at these pots, but as you have taught me, most people at O8 are stations, especially on the flop. I can't resist sometimes and stab, but I hate it because if I get called, and "good" card comes on the turn, I want to hammer again like I would in hold'em. Unfortunately the pot will have grown too large by this time, and I simply do not want to be putting big bets in with air or marginal hands. So ya. I guess I pick spots very very carefully, I would even say more carefully than would be profitable, and certainly more carefully than I want to be..
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